Thursday, May 21, 2015

Debunking Global Warming Misconceptions Part III -- Actually Much Warmer Before Modern Times

Average temperature graphs covering 400,000 years to the present disagree with the man-made global warming theory. Scientists constructed these graphs using data from ice core, tree rings, underwater sediments, etc. 

It has been warmer, over the past 10,000 years, then it has been during our lifetimes. We are long overdue for major glaciation. Human activity will not stop a process that started before 1 million years ago.

Myth: Temperatures and CO2 levels have historically been low. As human industrial activity increased, CO2 levels increased and so have temperatures.

Actual, raw, data shows increases and decrease in temperatures. In the past 2,000 years, there was the Roman Warm Period, The Medieval Warm Period, and the 20th Century Warm Period. 

This graph, of natural data, tells a different story from what most people are being told. 

It shows that the Roman Warm Period was warmer than the Medieval Warm Period. The Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the 20th Century Warm Period. Warm periods that happened before the Roman Warm Period were generally warmer than the Roman Warm Period.

In the same graph, there are mini ice ages. The most recent one taking place from the 1600s to the 1800s.

Even among these Warm Periods, the trend is towards declining average temperatures.

Myth: Most of the hottest years occurred this century...

Raw temperature data disagrees with this. They actually indicate that the hottest years occurred in the previous century. Global warming peaked in the 1930s and again in the 1990s. 

Many record-breaking cold temperatures are defeating 100 + year old cold records. Contrast this with record hot temperatures defeating records set within the last three or four decades.  

Most of the global warming that took place before the 21st Century took place from the late 19th century through the 1930s. This reversed from the 1940s to the 1970s. Average temperatures rose again from the 1970s to the 1990s. From the late 1990s until present, average global temperatures have been sinking. 

It's getting colder.

Despite that up-and-down temperature trend, human industrial activity continued to increase. CO2 emissions continue to go up. Even with the current "pause" in "global warming", CO2 levels are going up.

Raw temperature data this century leans toward record cold/record cool temperatures. Announcements, declaring that we just set a record hot year, were based on averaged-up data. 

Actual, raw, thermometer measurements for each year consistently didn't support that conclusion. Average temperature trend is downward.

Myth: Climate realists do not factor in satellite data.

Climate realists utilize raw data from both ground thermometer and satellite temperature measurements. 

They do this not only in real time, but across a longer period of time. When you take both into consideration, you see true temperature on the ground away from urban hot pocket areas. You'll also see true temperature trends throughout the world... across time.

Both long-term ground based thermometers, and long-term satellite measurements, indicate a current cooling trend.

Myth: In addition to "rising" temperatures, sea levels are rising, warming, and expanding at an alarming rate.

There are studies, of sea levels, that are producing conflicting conclusions. There are studies that indicate that the sea levels are rising. However, many of these studies indicate that the rate of sea level rise is declining.

This is significant. 

From a physics and mathematics standpoint, declining rates of sea level rise indicate something else. If that trend continues, we will reach a point of sea level decline.

Other studies indicate that sea levels are actually declining. 

This is natural. The Arctic Ice Sheet is regaining its lost ice. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is setting size/extent records. Most glaciers are actually growing, and not decreasing.

If this trend continues, more studies will show a declining sea level trend.

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