Thursday, May 21, 2015

Debunking Global Warming Misconceptions Part V -- Temperatures Going Down, CO2 Going Up

Man-made global warming folks point to Carbon Dioxide (CO2) as the greenhouse gas playing a role in "man-made global warming." However, actual data does not support that. Carbon Dioxide, or increasing amounts of it, is not causing global warming. 

In fact, even the United Nations has admitted to a "pause" in "man-made" global warming. Despite this fact, the volume of CO2 in our atmosphere keeps increasing.

Myth: Before human activity, the CO2 system was in balance, with the oceans absorbing that same amount as was emitted.

The Ocean has released and absorbed CO2 at different amounts throughout our history. It's a cycle. The oceans continue to do both, absorb and release CO2 at the same time. It alternates between absorbing more, and releasing more. The net release, or absorption, has nothing to do with human CO2 emissions.

Many man-made global warming articles show CO2 being released from industrial activity. That's not CO2, but CO, or carbon monoxide, and one or more of the other major pollutants. Other pictures show factories releasing water vapor in the form of steam. This picture accompanies an article talking about CO2 increase milestones.

They also show other elements, but not a massive collection of CO2. 

Myth: The natural CO2 emission and absorption rate allowed for 180 to 200 ppm CO2 prior to human industrial activity. Industrial activity contributed to an increase in CO2 volume above 200 ppm.

There were times, before the first humans walked on this planet, when CO2 existed in higher concentrations than today. Neither humans, nor human industrial activity, existed during those times. The rise or fall of CO2 concentration is a natural process. Humans will not be able to stop it.

Myth: Human industrial activity is the reason to our blowing over 300 PPM CO2.

The Vostok Ice Core graph shows that whenever we exceeded a certain volume of CO2 in the atmosphere, we entered a mega ice age. This happened like clockwork. We have already passed that point.

This has happened multiple times over the past 400,000 years. 

Myth: Humans are the biggest CO2 release culprits.

Most of our CO2 comes from the oceans, from forests, from animals, and from other natural sources. This has not changed because of our existence. When humans cut down forests or vegetation, this contributes to the release of the CO2 contained in the vegetation. 

Humans also release CO2 when they exhale. Does this make humans guilty of pollution every time they exhale? 

Myth: CO2 is the predominant greenhouse gas.

Water vapor is the predominant greenhouse gas. That comes from natural sources. CO2 is one of the minor greenhouse gases, most of which comes from natural sources.

Myth: CO2 is a pollutant.

CO2 is a natural gas that exists mainly from natural sources. CO2 is a natural fertilizer. Plants need CO2. With all other things being equal, the more CO2 a plant gets, the better it generally does.

Human industrial activity, and vehicle activity, tend to release carbon monoxide, or CO, and other pollutants. Those biased towards global warming try to get CO2 confused with CO. 

Carbon Monoxide is a pollutant, it's released by human activity. By itself, it's not being accused of causing global warming. Something that humans exhale gets blamed instead.

Myth: Unlike human CO2 activity, volcanic eruptions do not impact climate.

There's a strong argument for volcanic eruption impact on weather, compared to human activity. There are studies that suggest that their impact tends to cool climate down temporarily. Decreases in temperatures early in the 1990s pointed to a single eruption of a Filipino volcano as a possible cause.

Contrast this with the alleged impact of human industrial activity.

Most of the modern global warming happened before World War II. It ran from the late 19th century until the 1930s. Temperatures declined from the 1940s to the 1970s, despite increasing industrial activity.

The second warming run, from the 1970s to the 1990s, stopped in the late 1990s. Temperatures have been trending downwards since then. 

Human emissions continue to increase despite that natural up and down cycle.

Even the United Nations has acknowledged a "pause in global warming." Despite this "pause", CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is still going up. If temperatures paused despite rising CO2 concentrations, then what is causing CO2 increase?

Responsible science would reject the assumption that CO2 is causing temperature rise.

An increasing amount of volcanoes are active, both on land and underwater. These can have more of an impact on the climate than human industrial activity.

CO2 is a natural fertilizer that plants need. It's a naturally occurring gas. Human contribution to greenhouse gases is insignificant compared to that of the oceans, forests, volcanoes, and other natural sources.

Myth: "Man-Made" global warming is causing these recent floods and increased precipitation.

Cosmic rays facilitate water vapor and water droplet formation. As solar sunspot flaring activity decreases, solar wind activity decreases. With a decrease in solar wind, cosmic rays into our atmosphere increase.

Cosmic rays contribute to water droplet and cloud formation.

This leads to an increase in moisture and water vapor in the atmosphere. This contributes to increased precipitation as average global temperatures decline. This concept has been observed in nature, and has been successfully replicated in the lab.

Myth: An increase in CO2 leads to an increase in temperatures.

Actual ice core data shows that temperature rise precedes CO2 rise, not the other way around. The Vostok Ice graphs show that CO2 continued to climb well into a mega ice age before dropping off. 

Myth: In actuality, most of the weather/climate observations matches the computer model global warming predictions.

Computer forecasting based global warming predictions have failed. These models made predictions over the past 14 years. Mother Nature has proven those models wrong. The further into the future the projection, the bigger the deviation.

Actual temperature measurements indicate a cooling trend.

Deception: If you rerun computer global warming models with 3 degrees of warming, the predictions match exactly the warming that we've observed.

This is an arbitrary increase at the input end.

Computer models are an example of "garbage in garbage out." It's impossible to fit every variable, impacting climate and weather in the real world, into a computer model. Computer models run on artificial variables and constructs.

With their not running on the actual variables, their forecasts are largely unreliable. Computer models cannot accurately predict weather in the next two days. They can't be relied upon to predict climate over the long run.

There has been no increase in average temperatures since the end of the 20th Century. So, if computer modeling still shows an "exact" matching to the "warming" that has "happened" since then, then the projections, and computer modeling, are still wrong.

Myth: Initial CO2 release amplifies the warming...

Again, initial temperature increases led to CO2 increase. This means that when temperatures rise, they cause a chain reaction that causes more CO2 to be released into the atmosphere. When the weather gets cold, as in major glaciation, a chain reaction happens that tends to pull CO2 from the atmosphere.

Raw data proves this.

Deception: Over 90% of the warming happens after the CO2 starts to rise...

That's a play on words. That's trying to give credit to the subsequent temperature rise... due to solar activity... to the initial CO2 volume increase. The graphs show that temperature rise consistently leads to CO2 rise. They also show that temperature declines consistently lead to CO2 level declines...

Myth: ... More intense storms, more intense droughts, more acidic oceans, rising oceans, are happening because of man-made global warming.

You get more intense storms when meeting air masses show a larger difference in temperatures. Intense storms, increased droughts, etc, are a symptom of the planet's entering a mini ice age. 

For example, droughts that hit the beginning of the last mini ice age led to thousands of people dying via starvation and sickness. 

The oceans becoming more "acidic" are doing so due to natural causes.

Myth: Reductions in human industrial emissions will lead to reductions in temperature.

If we reduced our emissions now, CO2 will still go up. Water vapor is the major gas. Out of the total carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, the vast majority are from natural sources. 

Mother Nature contributes 95% to 97% of the CO2 released into the atmosphere. Humans contribute the remainder of the CO2 released. Water vapor contributes 95% to 97% of the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. CO2, along with "other gases" constitute the remainder.

Human industrial contribution of CO2 is a small fraction of 1% of the total greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.

This figure alone indicates that Mother Nature will increase or decrease our temperature without our help. She has done this long before our existence. She will continue to do this long after our existence.

Those biased in favor of global warming confuse pollutants with greenhouse gases in their argument. Carbon Monoxide, a pollutant, is being hidden in this case by the mention of Carbon Dioxide, a natural gas. 

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